Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

29%

38%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 29.08%3.44fair odd

EV -2.30%

Edge -0.685%

Kelly -0.976%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.86%29.08%28.99%29.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.313.343.3631.25%30.21%29.94%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd

EV -3.31%

Edge -1.30%

Kelly -2.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.75%37.92%37.97%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.492.532.542.5540.16%39.56%39.45%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.00%3.03fair odd

EV -1.65%

Edge -0.552%

Kelly -0.831%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.52%33.00%33.04%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.862.922.932.9834.97%34.19%34.13%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 29.08%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 37.92%; Draw: 33.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.98, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	3.36I 29.76%NM 28.86%EV -2.30%E -0.685%K -0.976%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 38.03%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 33.10%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-04-05 13:25
1xBet🎯	3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -2.88%E -0.864%K -1.23%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.46%EV -4.45%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.52%EV -1.65%E -0.552%K -0.831%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-04-05 13:25
Pinnacle🎯	3.34I 29.94%NM 28.99%EV -2.88%E -0.864%K -1.23%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 33.04%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-04-05 13:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 37.75%EV -5.58%E -2.24%K -3.75%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 32.87%EV -5.61%E -1.96%K -3.01%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-05 13:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.