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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:45 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 1–3 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -0.846%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.35%28.92%31.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.253.3633.90%31.15%30.77%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.84%42.23%42.66%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.232.2646.51%44.93%44.84%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.477%
Kelly -0.672%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%28.42%28.42%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.333.303.4630.77%30.03%30.30%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 28.92%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 42.66%; Draw: 28.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.46, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.78%EV -2.84%E -0.846%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.78%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%EV -3.36%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-17 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.73%EV -3.42%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.04%EV -4.87%E -2.18%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.23%EV -3.36%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-17 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.26%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 17:25
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.26%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 17:20
1xBet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.80%EV -6.89%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.46%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.74%EV -1.65%E -0.477%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-17 17:33
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.01%EV -14.70%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.84%EV -4.44%E -1.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-17 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.