The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 17:45 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 2–3 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 21.36%4.68fair odd
EV -0.263%
Edge -0.056%
Kelly -0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%21.33%21.36%21.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.434.404.6723.81%22.56%22.73%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 50.67%1.97fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.21%50.70%50.67%52.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.871.8956.82%54.10%53.48%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.97%3.58fair odd
EV -0.146%
Edge -0.041%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%27.97%27.97%28.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.403.403.5730.30%29.40%29.41%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 21.36%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 50.67%; Draw: 27.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.57, with an expected value of -0.146%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.67I 21.41%NM 20.66%EV -0.263%E -0.056%K -0.072%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -4.23%E -2.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.29%EV -4.62%E -1.36%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 17:36
1xBet🎯4.56I 21.93%NM 21.03%EV -2.61%E -0.573%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.11%EV -6.76%E -3.68%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.86%EV -0.146%E -0.041%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 17:36
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.34%EV -3.89%E -0.865%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.07%EV -4.74%E -2.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.59%EV -2.66%E -0.765%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.03%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.30%E -1.88%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-16 17:40
BetUS🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -6.03%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 17:20
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -8.16%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.90%EV -10.82%E -6.15%K -14.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV -4.90%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.27%E -3.97%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.70%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.