The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 1–2 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.732%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%25.89%25.64%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.713.8229.41%27.21%26.95%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 45.15%2.21fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.89%44.88%45.15%47.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.092.1351.28%48.23%47.73%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.805%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.41%29.23%29.21%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.303.333.5231.75%30.27%30.08%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 25.64%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 45.15%; Draw: 29.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 25.38%EV -2.06%E -0.540%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.07%EV -6.99%E -3.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.55%EV +2.83%E +0.805%K +1.12%G +0.032%3.1%2026-08-16 16:19
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -11.96%E -6.13%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -2.13%E -0.637%K -0.908%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 16:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.79%EV -4.63%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -4.74%E -2.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.73%EV -2.42%E -0.726%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 16:24
Pinnacle🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 25.38%EV -2.32%E -0.609%K -0.826%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.40%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.22%EV -3.30%E -0.997%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 16:24
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.89%EV -5.64%E -2.70%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.