The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 13:30 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 0–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 44.19%2.26fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.98%44.19%44.27%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.172.2048.78%46.60%46.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 25.17%3.97fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%25.17%25.21%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.793.783.9027.40%26.36%26.46%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.64%3.26fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.810%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.41%30.64%30.52%31.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.113.1833.33%32.11%32.15%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 44.19%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 25.17%; Draw: 30.64%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -2.78%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.60%EV -4.85%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.43%EV -2.58%E -0.810%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-02 13:15
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.14%EV -3.22%E -1.47%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.78%EV -1.83%E -0.469%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.08%EV -4.72%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 13:16
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -4.10%E -1.89%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.90%EV -2.08%E -0.535%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.46%EV -2.58%E -0.810%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.46%EV -6.31%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.61%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 13:15
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -8.09%E -2.70%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 13:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.