The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:30 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 1–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 48.43%2.06fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.43%48.24%48.43%48.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.961.952.0252.36%50.98%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 20.53%4.87fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -0.749%
Kelly -0.951%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%20.74%20.53%21.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.554.694.7023.81%21.96%21.32%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.04%3.22fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.60%31.02%31.04%31.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.063.053.1533.33%32.70%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 48.43%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 20.53%; Draw: 31.04%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -2.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.05%EV -2.17%E -1.07%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.14%EV -5.78%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%EV -2.22%E -0.705%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-24 17:19
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -3.62%E -1.82%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.60%EV -3.72%E -0.794%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -2.84%E -0.908%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 17:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.32%EV -3.62%E -1.82%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.46%EV -3.52%E -0.749%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.22%EV -4.39%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-24 17:23
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.56%E -2.85%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -3.52%E -0.749%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -5.32%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-24 17:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV -6.04%E -3.12%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-24 17:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.69%EV -6.53%E -3.38%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -3.52%E -0.749%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-24 17:19
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.06%EV -7.50%E -3.92%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.35%EV -11.73%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-24 17:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.