The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v FK Sochi

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 71.54%1.40fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%71.54%71.54%71.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.341.331.3876.34%74.77%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Sochi (Visit)

Prediction 9.27%10.78fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.323%
Kelly -0.357%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.24%9.27%9.27%9.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.0510.1510.4210.53%9.95%9.85%9.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.19%5.21fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.518%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.88%19.19%19.19%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.804.815.1022.22%20.81%20.79%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 71.54%; FK Sochi (Visit): 9.27%; Draw: 19.19%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.38, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.28%EV -1.28%E -0.929%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.51%EV -5.41%E -0.530%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 17:19
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.87%EV -4.14%E -3.09%K -12.19%G +0.000%10.42I 9.60%NM 9.24%EV -3.37%E -0.323%K -0.357%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV -2.13%E -0.417%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-21 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.20%EV -5.57%E -4.22%K -17.42%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.30%EV -6.33%E -0.627%K -0.696%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.50%EV -7.50%E -1.56%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 17:25
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.98%EV -6.29%E -4.80%K -20.29%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -11.90%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.64%E -3.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 17:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.