The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 18:00 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 0–0 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 42.46%2.36fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.90%42.51%42.46%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.222.3147.62%45.31%45.05%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.533%
Kelly -0.725%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%25.89%25.92%26.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.673.703.7828.57%27.23%27.03%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.62%3.16fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.02%31.61%31.62%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.942.992.963.0734.01%33.43%33.78%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 42.46%; FK Rostov (Visit): 25.92%; Draw: 31.62%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.90%EV -1.93%E -0.835%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%EV -4.09%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.94%EV -4.18%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 17:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.04%EV -5.33%E -2.39%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.39%EV -2.01%E -0.533%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.57%EV -3.87%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 17:19
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.28%EV -5.75%E -2.59%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.42%EV -2.01%E -0.533%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.30%EV -2.92%E -0.950%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 17:49
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46%EV -5.75%E -2.59%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.09%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -7.03%E -2.39%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.40%EV -5.75%E -2.59%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.38%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -6.40%E -2.16%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 17:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.72%E -4.06%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.71%E -2.28%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 06:09
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.84%E -5.16%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.71%E -2.28%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 17:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.