Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad v FC Nizhny Novgorod

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 2–2 FC Nizhny Novgorod

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

56%

17%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 56.26%1.78fair odd

EV -4.92%

Edge -2.91%

Kelly -7.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.52%56.26%56.26%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.661.691.6962.50%60.24%59.17%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit)

Prediction 17.21%5.81fair odd

EV +14.97%

Edge +2.24%

Kelly +2.64%

Growth +0.395%

assuming max odds 6.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.52%17.21%17.21%17.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.315.915.756.6818.83%16.91%17.39%14.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd

EV +3.46%

Edge +0.887%

Kelly +1.19%

Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.87%26.53%26.53%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.693.673.9028.57%27.10%27.25%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 56.26%; FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit): 17.21%; Draw: 26.53%. For FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.61%EV -9.98%E -6.24%K -16.64%G +0.000%	6.68I 14.97%NM 14.52%EV +14.97%E +2.24%K +2.64%G +0.395%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV +3.46%E +0.887%K +1.19%G +0.041%	3.1%	2026-04-11 16:19
Pinnacle🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.92%E -2.91%K -7.13%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.75%EV -1.03%E -0.180%K -0.217%G +0.000%	3.67I 27.25%NM 26.25%EV -2.64%E -0.720%K -0.989%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-11 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.52%EV -4.92%E -2.91%K -7.13%G +0.000%	5.31I 18.83%NM 17.67%EV -8.61%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-11 16:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.