The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 2–1 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 58.59%1.71fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -6.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%58.44%58.59%59.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.631.6464.52%62.06%61.35%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 16.17%6.18fair odd
EV +0.261%
Edge +0.042%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.61%16.20%16.17%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.605.845.756.2017.86%17.12%17.39%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.536%
Kelly -0.722%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%25.36%25.24%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.743.703.8827.40%26.76%27.03%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 58.59%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 16.17%; Draw: 25.24%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.261%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.91%E -2.38%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.61%EV +0.261%E +0.042%K +0.050%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.40%EV -3.85%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 14:25
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.62%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%6.14I 16.29%NM 15.63%EV -0.709%E -0.116%K -0.138%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.74%EV -2.08%E -0.536%K -0.722%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.88%EV -4.50%E -2.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -2.97%E -0.496%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.12%EV -3.59%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 14:20
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.22%EV -9.18%E -5.92%K -16.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV -7.02%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -6.62%E -1.79%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.40%EV -3.91%E -2.38%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV -9.44%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -7.88%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 14:25
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.40%EV -3.91%E -2.38%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV -9.44%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -7.88%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -8.01%E -5.10%K -14.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -9.44%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -7.88%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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