The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Baltika Kaliningrad v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-04-27 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 57.67%1.73fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.60%57.67%57.66%58.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.601.6863.69%62.11%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 17.87%5.60fair odd
EV +0.761%
Edge +0.135%
Kelly +0.164%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.11%17.87%17.74%18.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.275.205.6420.83%18.96%19.23%17.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV +0.787%
Edge +0.191%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%24.46%24.60%24.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.863.854.1227.40%25.92%25.97%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 57.67%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 17.87%; Draw: 24.46%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.787%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.63%EV -3.11%E -1.85%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.46%EV +0.761%E +0.135%K +0.164%G +0.001%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.91%EV +0.787%E +0.191%K +0.252%G +0.002%1.5%2026-04-23 21:44
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.76%EV -7.15%E -4.44%K -11.72%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.11%EV -1.20%E -0.218%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.13%EV -4.11%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 21:45
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -9.46%E -6.02%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -7.10%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -5.82%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.66%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -7.10%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.26%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 21:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.60%EV -8.30%E -5.22%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.25%E -2.97%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.65%EV -10.71%E -2.93%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 20:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.