The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 1–2 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 37.22%2.69fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.520%
Kelly -0.835%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.01%37.30%37.22%37.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.542.562.6541.15%39.34%39.06%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 34.56%2.89fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.80%34.41%34.56%34.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.752.782.8437.74%36.39%35.97%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.343%
Kelly -0.480%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.29%28.23%28.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.343.5030.77%29.81%29.90%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 37.22%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 34.56%; Draw: 28.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 37.17%EV -1.38%E -0.520%K -0.835%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.68%EV -1.86%E -0.655%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%EV -1.20%E -0.343%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.21%EV -3.24%E -1.25%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.67%EV -3.59%E -1.29%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -2.89%E -0.842%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.01%EV -3.24%E -1.25%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.61%EV -3.93%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.38%EV -4.31%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -6.22%E -2.47%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -3.93%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -8.26%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.82%E -3.60%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -8.43%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.26%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.69%EV -9.57%E -3.94%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -8.43%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -6.85%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.