The School of Odds

FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Dinamo Moscow

2026-08-01 17:45 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.980%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.24%33.37%33.37%33.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.862.882.9436.36%34.93%34.72%34.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 37.47%2.67fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.41%37.47%37.47%37.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.552.562.6240.82%39.22%38.99%38.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd
EV -0.830%
Edge -0.244%
Kelly -0.346%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.95%29.17%29.17%29.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.293.293.4031.75%30.44%30.35%29.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%EV -1.90%E -0.646%K -0.980%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.57%EV -1.84%E -0.703%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.95%EV -0.830%E -0.244%K -0.346%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-25 18:20
Marathon Bet2.89I 34.60%NM 33.50%EV -3.57%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.52%EV -3.34%E -1.29%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.98%EV -2.58%E -0.773%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-25 18:20
Pinnacle2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24%EV -4.24%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -4.46%E -1.75%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.21%E -1.60%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 19:20
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -8.24%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -8.21%E -3.35%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.12%E -2.58%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.