The School of Odds
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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 17:45 UTC

Final: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 2–1 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 33.01%3.03fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.55%32.97%33.01%33.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.872.882.9435.71%34.84%34.72%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 37.17%2.69fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.81%37.27%37.17%38.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.552.6141.67%39.60%39.14%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.83%3.35fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.818%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.09%29.76%29.83%30.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.193.2932.26%31.32%31.40%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 33.01%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 37.17%; Draw: 29.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%EV -2.96%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.48%EV -3.74%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.50%EV -1.87%E -0.569%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-01 17:38
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.14%EV -3.62%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.08%EV -3.00%E -1.15%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.78%EV -3.07%E -0.943%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-01 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.36%EV -4.94%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.81%EV -3.00%E -1.15%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.83%EV -3.96%E -1.23%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 17:38
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -4.94%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.20%EV -6.34%E -2.52%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -7.54%E -2.43%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 17:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.58%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.99%EV -10.06%E -4.16%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.05%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 06:09
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.58%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -10.80%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -6.05%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 17:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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