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FC Baltika Kaliningrad v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local)

Prediction 36.57%2.73fair odd
EV -0.895%
Edge -0.330%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.80%36.57%36.51%36.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.622.652.7139.22%38.11%37.74%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 33.46%2.99fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.25%33.46%33.51%34.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.812.812.9137.74%35.59%35.59%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.97%3.34fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.881%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.54%29.97%29.98%30.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.2732.26%31.33%31.25%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local): 36.57%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 33.46%; Draw: 29.97%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.71, with an expected value of -0.895%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.80%EV -0.895%E -0.330%K -0.523%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.53%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.67%EV -2.00%E -0.612%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 17:20
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.40%EV -2.72%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.62%EV -3.63%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.98%EV -3.20%E -0.990%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.51%EV -3.09%E -1.17%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.25%EV -2.63%E -0.904%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -4.10%E -1.28%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.69%EV -5.30%E -1.68%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 17:25
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.75%E -2.65%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -11.33%E -4.28%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.10%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 17:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.