Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 10:00 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 0–3 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

34%

38%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 33.73%2.96fair odd

EV -2.17%

Edge -0.749%

Kelly -1.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.36%33.73%33.73%34.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.812.832.9037.04%35.56%35.40%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 38.18%2.62fair odd

EV -3.78%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -2.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.36%38.18%38.18%39.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.462.482.5242.55%40.69%40.32%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.08%3.56fair odd

EV -0.303%

Edge -0.085%

Kelly -0.119%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.98%28.08%28.08%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.443.453.5530.30%29.09%28.99%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 33.73%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 38.18%; Draw: 28.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.303%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.36%EV -2.17%E -0.749%K -1.14%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%EV -5.31%E -2.14%K -3.59%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%EV -1.71%E -0.488%K -0.683%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-08-23 09:45
1xBet🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.56%EV -2.51%E -0.868%K -1.33%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.11%EV -5.31%E -2.14%K -3.59%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.32%EV -0.303%E -0.085%K -0.119%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-08-23 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.11%EV -6.89%E -2.50%K -3.92%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.36%EV -3.78%E -1.50%K -2.49%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-23 09:55
Bovada🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.92%E -3.30%K -5.25%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -10.27%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -4.52%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-08-23 09:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.