The School of Odds
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FC Akron Tolyatti v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 10:00 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 1–3 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 30.59%3.27fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.999%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.00%30.59%29.28%33.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.093.203.3836.36%32.32%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 40.31%2.48fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.672%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.74%40.31%41.46%41.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.262.362.372.4444.25%42.41%42.19%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.78%29.10%29.26%29.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.203.3532.26%30.94%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 30.59%; FK Rostov (Visit): 40.31%; Draw: 29.10%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 29.11%EV +3.38%E +0.999%K +1.42%G +0.048%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.52%EV -4.46%E -1.88%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%EV -2.50%E -0.747%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.6%2026-05-11 09:39
Pinnacle🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 29.00%EV +2.15%E +0.645%K +0.921%G +0.020%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.74%EV -6.48%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.26%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-11 09:39
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -2.13%E -0.665%K -0.967%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -8.90%E -3.94%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 09:39
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -14.36%E -5.13%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -3.25%E -1.36%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-10 21:28
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -15.89%E -5.78%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.74%EV -1.64%E -0.672%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.