The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Akron Tolyatti v FC Rotor Volgograd

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 48.34%2.07fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.33%48.34%48.34%51.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.942.0055.56%52.26%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Rotor Volgograd (Visit)

Prediction 24.05%4.16fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.450%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%24.05%24.05%24.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.014.024.1025.64%24.96%24.88%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -0.966%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.61%27.61%27.61%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.453.453.5029.41%28.99%28.99%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 48.34%; FC Rotor Volgograd (Visit): 24.05%; Draw: 27.61%. For FC Rotor Volgograd (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.33%EV -3.31%E -1.66%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.05%EV -3.32%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -3.38%E -0.966%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-23 15:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.36%EV -6.21%E -3.20%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.20%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.14%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 15:19
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -12.98%E -7.21%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -1.39%E -0.340%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -4.76%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.