The School of Odds
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FC Akron Tolyatti v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:00 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 0–1 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 16.45%6.08fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.388%
Kelly -0.466%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.23%16.45%16.45%16.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.605.775.765.9417.86%17.35%17.36%16.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 63.24%1.58fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -6.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.05%63.24%63.24%63.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.501.501.5368.49%66.78%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.31%4.92fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.564%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.24%20.31%20.31%20.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.664.674.7922.22%21.47%21.41%20.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 16.45%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 63.24%; Draw: 20.31%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.94, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.94I 16.84%NM 16.23%EV -2.30%E -0.388%K -0.466%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.43%EV -3.88%E -2.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV -3.72%E -0.784%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 13:56
1xBet🎯5.92I 16.89%NM 16.38%EV -2.63%E -0.445%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.38%EV -3.24%E -2.12%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.24%EV -2.70%E -0.564%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -7.90%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -6.41%E -4.33%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 13:45
Bovada🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.90%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.09%EV -7.67%E -5.25%K -16.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.59%E -1.91%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.