Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 1–1 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

39%

32%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 38.84%2.57fair odd

EV -3.68%

Edge -1.48%

Kelly -2.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.35%38.84%39.04%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.402.402.4843.48%41.60%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 31.58%3.17fair odd

EV -1.77%

Edge -0.570%

Kelly -0.839%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.06%31.58%31.61%31.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.002.983.1134.48%33.33%33.56%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd

EV -2.10%

Edge -0.634%

Kelly -0.908%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.09%29.58%29.35%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.203.203.3132.79%31.23%31.25%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 38.84%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 31.58%; Draw: 29.58%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.11, with an expected value of -1.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.03%EV -3.68%E -1.48%K -2.49%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 31.63%EV -3.35%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.33%EV -2.39%E -0.725%K -1.04%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-04-23 14:15
1xBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.56%EV -4.85%E -1.98%K -3.34%G +0.000%	3.11I 32.15%NM 31.16%EV -1.77%E -0.570%K -0.839%G +0.000%	3.31I 30.21%NM 29.28%EV -2.10%E -0.634%K -0.908%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-04-23 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.79%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.52%EV -5.88%E -1.97%K -2.97%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-23 14:05
Codere (IT)🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 38.35%EV -7.18%E -3.00%K -5.16%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -9.79%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-23 14:05
Bovada🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-23 14:17

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.