The School of Odds
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FC Akron Tolyatti v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 15:30 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 2–0 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 29.90%3.34fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.450%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.22%29.90%29.55%31.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.143.173.3133.90%31.89%31.55%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 42.35%2.36fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.23%42.35%42.60%43.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.222.2646.51%45.13%45.05%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.802%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%27.75%27.85%28.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.413.353.5330.30%29.33%29.85%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 29.90%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 42.35%; Draw: 27.75%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.31, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 29.22%EV -1.04%E -0.314%K -0.450%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.38%EV -5.56%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.40%EV -2.03%E -0.575%K -0.802%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-17 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.33%E -1.35%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.44%EV -5.99%E -2.70%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 15:26
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.65%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.46%EV -4.29%E -1.90%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.26%EV -2.31%E -0.655%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-17 15:25
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.81%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -11.80%E -4.00%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -5.99%E -2.70%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-17 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.