Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

34%

39%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 33.79%2.96fair odd

EV +0.027%

Edge +0.009%

Kelly +0.014%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.25%33.79%33.79%34.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.732.842.832.9636.63%35.24%35.34%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 38.56%2.59fair odd

EV -2.06%

Edge -0.810%

Kelly -1.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.10%38.56%38.56%39.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.462.472.5442.55%40.69%40.49%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.65%3.62fair odd

EV -2.68%

Edge -0.762%

Kelly -1.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.57%27.65%27.65%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.433.453.5230.30%29.18%29.03%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 33.79%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 38.56%; Draw: 27.65%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.959. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.960, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.027%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.26%EV +0.027%E +0.009%K +0.014%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.76%EV -2.06%E -0.810%K -1.34%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.68%E -0.762%K -1.06%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-03-15 10:45
Pinnacle🎯	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.25%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.870%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02%EV -4.37%E -1.76%K -2.95%G +0.000%	3.49I 28.65%NM 27.73%EV -3.51%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-15 10:45
Bovada🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -7.07%E -2.57%K -4.04%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.38%E -3.99%K -6.95%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.76%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-15 10:41
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.73I 36.63%NM 34.33%EV -7.75%E -2.84%K -4.48%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.10%EV -5.14%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.00%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-15 10:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.