The School of Odds
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FC Akron Tolyatti v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 09:45 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 3–1 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 18.33%5.45fair odd
EV +0.835%
Edge +0.152%
Kelly +0.186%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.52%18.23%18.33%18.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.205.205.5020.00%19.24%19.23%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 58.18%1.72fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -6.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.84%58.23%58.18%58.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6563.69%61.89%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.49%4.26fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -0.900%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.42%23.53%23.49%23.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.014.004.1025.64%24.96%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 18.33%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 58.18%; Draw: 23.49%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.835%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.52%EV +0.835%E +0.152%K +0.186%G +0.002%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.75%EV -4.59%E -2.80%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.73%EV -4.63%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 09:30
1xBet🎯5.44I 18.38%NM 17.63%EV -0.265%E -0.049%K -0.060%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.85%EV -5.17%E -3.17%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.51%EV -4.16%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 09:41
Marathon Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV -3.75%E -0.714%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.25%EV -4.01%E -2.43%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -3.69%E -0.900%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-21 08:40
Bovada🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -4.66%E -0.897%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -8.66%E -5.52%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -8.39%E -2.15%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 09:39
BetOnline.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.33%E -1.67%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -5.75%E -3.55%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.04%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 06:30
BetUS🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.33%E -1.67%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -5.75%E -3.55%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.04%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 06:30
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -8.33%E -1.67%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.10%EV -8.08%E -5.12%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -8.39%E -2.15%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.