Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 14:15 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 2–3 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 27.02%3.70fair odd
EV -0.297%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.15%27.02%27.02%27.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.363.533.543.6929.76%28.29%28.21%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 48.65%2.06fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.57%48.65%48.65%50.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.961.9954.64%51.75%51.15%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.33%4.11fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.673%
Kelly -0.897%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.79%24.33%24.33%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.823.923.924.0026.18%25.54%25.51%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 27.02%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 48.65%; Draw: 24.33%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.69, with an expected value of -0.297%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 26.15%EV -0.297%E -0.081%K -0.110%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.73%EV -5.61%E -2.89%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%EV -2.69%E -0.673%K -0.897%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-13 13:55
1xBet🎯3.59I 27.86%NM 27.00%EV -3.00%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.71%EV -3.18%E -1.60%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.29%EV -2.93%E -0.735%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-13 14:04
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -5.43%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.05%EV -10.96%E -5.99%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -6.34%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-13 14:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 27.89%EV -9.21%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -4.15%E -2.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.53%EV -7.07%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-13 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.