The School of Odds
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FC Akron Tolyatti v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Akron Tolyatti 2–2 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akron Tolyatti (Local)

Prediction 18.66%5.36fair odd
EV -0.370%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.10%18.66%18.39%19.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.055.105.3421.28%19.79%19.61%18.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 58.02%1.72fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -5.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.29%58.02%58.25%58.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.611.6663.69%61.80%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.32%4.29fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.372%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.91%23.32%23.36%23.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.064.004.2225.32%24.62%25.00%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akron Tolyatti (Local): 18.66%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 58.02%; Draw: 23.32%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.34, with an expected value of -0.370%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.34I 18.73%NM 18.10%EV -0.370%E -0.069%K -0.085%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.56%EV -4.27%E -2.59%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV -3.44%E -0.830%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 14:40
1xBet🎯5.23I 19.12%NM 18.55%EV -2.42%E -0.463%K -0.573%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.45%EV -3.69%E -2.22%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.99%EV -1.57%E -0.372%K -0.488%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-28 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -4.85%E -0.951%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.20%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.43%EV -6.70%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 14:50
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -8.58%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.70%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 14:51
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -12.31%E -2.62%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.29%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.21%EV -7.87%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 14:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.