The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Akhmat Grozny v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 17:30 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 1–2 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.316%
Kelly +0.410%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%23.37%23.15%25.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.004.004.3827.40%24.98%25.03%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 49.80%2.01fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%49.55%49.80%51.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.921.901.9853.19%52.22%52.49%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.05%3.70fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.583%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.66%27.08%27.05%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.513.523.6429.85%28.50%28.45%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 23.15%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 49.80%; Draw: 27.05%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.38I 22.83%NM 22.02%EV +1.39%E +0.316%K +0.410%G +0.006%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.03%EV -5.87%E -3.11%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -3.16%E -0.883%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -2.78%E -0.662%K -0.869%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.29%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -3.16%E -0.883%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.38%E -2.83%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 17:14
1xBet🎯3.99I 25.06%NM 24.32%EV -7.64%E -1.92%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.01%EV -1.39%E -0.703%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.66%EV -1.54%E -0.423%K -0.583%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 17:19
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.04%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -6.37%E -3.39%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 17:18
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -15.51%E -4.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.