The School of Odds

FC Akhmat Grozny v Spartak Moscow

2026-08-02 17:30 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.17%22.25%22.25%22.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.284.304.4224.39%23.35%23.23%22.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 52.48%1.91fair odd
EV -0.807%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.907%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.13%52.48%52.48%52.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.821.831.8956.82%54.79%54.79%52.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -0.768%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.11%25.27%25.27%25.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.763.793.8727.78%26.58%26.39%25.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet4.42I 22.62%NM 22.32%EV -1.67%E -0.377%K -0.488%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.19%EV -0.807%E -0.427%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.49%EV -2.20%E -0.570%K -0.768%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-26 18:00
Marathon Bet4.33I 23.09%NM 22.32%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.24%EV -2.91%E -1.57%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.43%EV -3.97%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 18:00
Pinnacle4.28I 23.36%NM 22.17%EV -4.78%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.72%EV -5.53%E -3.07%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.11%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 18:45
Bovada4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.13%EV -7.63%E -4.34%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.03%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.