The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Akhmat Grozny v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:00 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 3–3 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 55.48%1.80fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.23%55.48%55.60%55.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.711.711.7460.24%58.54%58.31%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 19.71%5.07fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.49%19.71%19.72%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.834.834.9721.28%20.70%20.68%20.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.81%4.03fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -0.944%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%24.81%24.68%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.833.833.9227.03%26.10%26.08%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 55.48%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 19.71%; Draw: 24.81%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.97, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.67%EV -3.47%E -1.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.97I 20.12%NM 19.49%EV -2.02%E -0.406%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -3.25%E -0.834%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 16:45
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.52%EV -3.47%E -1.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.84%EV -3.99%E -0.819%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -2.76%E -0.703%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.23%EV -3.47%E -1.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.61%EV -3.40%E -0.693%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.16%EV -5.24%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 16:55
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.83%EV -6.24%E -3.69%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.49%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.69%EV -6.80%E -4.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.73%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.50%EV -7.91%E -4.76%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.