The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Akhmat Grozny v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 0–1 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 45.58%2.19fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%45.57%45.58%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.092.1350.00%48.14%47.85%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 27.11%3.69fair odd
EV -0.507%
Edge -0.138%
Kelly -0.190%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.49%27.10%27.11%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.503.453.6729.85%28.57%28.99%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV -0.308%
Edge -0.084%
Kelly -0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%27.33%27.31%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.473.403.6529.85%28.79%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 45.58%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 27.11%; Draw: 27.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -0.308%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 46.21%EV -2.92%E -1.37%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.82%EV -0.507%E -0.138%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.97%EV -0.308%E -0.084%K -0.116%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-23 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.29%E -2.04%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 15:40
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.29%E -2.04%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 15:39
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.27%EV -4.74%E -2.27%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -1.05%E -0.287%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-23 15:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.18%EV -5.20%E -2.50%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -2.95%E -0.823%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.98%EV -2.77%E -0.777%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.09%EV -7.02%E -3.44%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -9.18%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.50%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 15:30
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.13%EV -8.85%E -4.42%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.