The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Akhmat Grozny v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 4–1 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 38.92%2.57fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.27%38.94%38.92%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.442.4643.48%41.37%40.98%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 30.36%3.29fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -0.459%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.69%30.36%30.36%31.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.2633.90%32.05%32.26%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.72%3.26fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.434%
Kelly -0.630%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.07%30.70%30.72%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.103.103.2133.33%32.27%32.26%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 38.92%; FK Rostov (Visit): 30.36%; Draw: 30.72%. For FK Rostov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.26, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -4.25%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.41%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.31%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 13:59
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.21%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.21%EV -1.39%E -0.434%K -0.630%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-22 14:49
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.89%E -1.90%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.67%EV -5.02%E -2.06%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.69%EV -1.04%E -0.318%K -0.459%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.63%EV -2.93%E -0.927%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.37%EV -5.02%E -2.06%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.84%EV -2.25%E -0.699%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.79%EV -4.16%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.46%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -10.45%E -3.54%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 14:45
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -10.47%E -4.55%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.41%E -2.43%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.31%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.