The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 24.51%4.08fair odd
EV +4.89%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.67%24.51%24.30%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.004.034.2827.40%25.02%24.81%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 49.49%2.02fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.79%49.49%49.84%51.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.921.921.9452.91%52.08%51.95%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%26.00%25.86%26.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.633.693.693.7427.55%27.12%27.10%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 24.51%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 49.49%; Draw: 26.00%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.67%EV +4.89%E +1.14%K +1.49%G +0.073%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.33%EV -6.47%E -3.42%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.01%EV -3.00%E -0.805%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Pinnacle🎯4.08I 24.51%NM 23.69%EV -0.010%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.83%EV -3.99%E -2.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%EV -5.08%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.30%EV -2.46%E -0.618%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.85%EV -3.99%E -2.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.86%EV -2.74%E -0.734%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -10.55%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.67%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.