Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:15 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 1–1 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

39%

31%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 38.92%2.57fair odd

EV -3.87%

Edge -1.57%

Kelly -2.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.27%38.92%39.16%39.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.442.462.462.4740.98%40.69%40.65%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 30.70%3.26fair odd

EV -1.76%

Edge -0.551%

Kelly -0.802%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.34%30.70%30.62%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.143.163.2032.79%31.82%31.65%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd

EV -1.26%

Edge -0.388%

Kelly -0.561%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.87%30.38%30.23%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.183.213.2532.79%31.45%31.15%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 38.92%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 30.70%; Draw: 30.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -3.87%E -1.57%K -2.63%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.61%EV -2.99%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -2.78%E -0.869%K -1.26%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-10 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.33%EV -4.26%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.62%EV -2.99%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -2.17%E -0.675%K -0.979%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-10 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -4.26%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.37%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-10 13:44
1xBet🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%EV -5.03%E -2.06%K -3.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34%EV -1.76%E -0.551%K -0.802%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.87%EV -1.26%E -0.388%K -0.561%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-05-10 14:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.