The School of Odds
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FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 11:30 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 3–2 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 45.93%2.18fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.33%45.67%45.93%46.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.072.1150.00%48.44%48.31%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%25.92%25.71%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.603.8329.41%27.58%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.36%3.53fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -0.964%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.14%28.42%28.36%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.303.4131.25%30.12%30.30%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 45.93%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 25.71%; Draw: 28.36%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.83, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.47%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.14%EV -5.64%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.39%EV -4.14%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 11:21
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.45%EV -4.47%E -2.15%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -1.53%E -0.399%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.33%EV -3.29%E -0.964%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 11:16
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -4.93%E -2.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.39%EV -2.81%E -0.744%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.23%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 11:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -4.93%E -2.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:21
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.53%EV -5.39%E -2.62%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.41%E -1.94%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:26
BetUS🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.53%EV -5.39%E -2.62%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.41%E -1.94%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:25
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 11:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.