The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 16:45 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 1–1 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 32.74%3.05fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%32.68%32.74%33.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.912.9936.36%34.58%34.36%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 37.56%2.66fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.899%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.11%37.52%37.56%37.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.532.522.6040.82%39.60%39.68%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.70%3.37fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -0.730%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.29%29.80%29.70%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.173.3132.79%31.45%31.55%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 32.74%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 37.56%; Draw: 29.70%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.31, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -2.12%E -0.709%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.79%EV -3.84%E -1.50%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.86%EV -3.77%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.91%EV -3.76%E -1.28%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.83%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -7.92%E -2.56%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:20
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.14%EV -4.41%E -1.51%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.36%EV -2.71%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -2.58%E -0.786%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 16:30
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.43%EV -5.07%E -1.75%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV -2.34%E -0.899%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.29%EV -1.69%E -0.510%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 16:35
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.70%E -2.35%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -9.41%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:23
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.98%E -3.63%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.11%EV -7.22%E -2.92%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.92%E -2.56%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.