The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Final: FC Akhmat Grozny 0–0 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 40.15%2.49fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.06%39.92%40.15%40.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.362.342.4243.48%42.37%42.74%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 28.58%3.50fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%28.70%28.58%29.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.293.353.4032.79%30.37%29.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.27%3.20fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.95%31.38%31.27%32.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.943.012.953.1034.01%33.25%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 40.15%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 28.58%; Draw: 31.27%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -2.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.00%EV -2.84%E -1.18%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.47%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.53%EV -4.00%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 10:50
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.98%EV -3.65%E -1.52%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.07%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV -3.06%E -0.988%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.45%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -4.25%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.98%EV -3.06%E -0.988%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-11 10:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -6.06%E -2.59%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -8.07%E -2.74%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:54
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -6.06%E -2.59%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -8.07%E -2.74%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.06%EV -6.06%E -2.59%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -12.82%E -4.20%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.98%EV -7.75%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 10:44
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.66%E -3.33%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -7.75%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 10:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.