Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

2026-10-11 11:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

37%

33%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 36.57%2.73fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -0.600%

Kelly -0.955%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.52%36.57%36.57%36.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.602.622.6940.00%38.39%38.24%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd

EV -1.68%

Edge -0.572%

Kelly -0.867%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.32%33.44%33.44%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.852.862.9436.36%35.06%34.97%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.98%3.34fair odd

EV -0.754%

Edge -0.228%

Kelly -0.326%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.70%29.98%29.98%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.203.193.3132.26%31.27%31.35%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 36.57%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 33.44%; Draw: 29.98%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.31, with an expected value of -0.754%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 36.66%EV -1.61%E -0.600%K -0.955%G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.54%EV -1.68%E -0.572%K -0.867%G +0.000%	3.31I 30.21%NM 29.79%EV -0.754%E -0.228%K -0.326%G +0.000%	1.4%	2026-09-29 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.63%EV -4.17%E -1.59%K -2.58%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.56%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.81%EV -3.45%E -1.07%K -1.56%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-29 14:09
Pinnacle🎯	2.61I 38.31%NM 36.52%EV -4.54%E -1.74%K -2.82%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.16%EV -5.25%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-29 14:10
Bovada🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.56%E -3.43%K -5.71%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.05%E -2.27%K -3.36%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-09-29 14:17

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.