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FC Akhmat Grozny v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Akhmat Grozny (Local)

Prediction 32.93%3.04fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.673%
Kelly +0.993%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%33.12%32.93%34.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.1036.36%34.19%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 38.61%2.59fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.16%38.56%38.61%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.442.5144.44%41.41%41.07%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.777%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%28.32%28.46%28.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.383.4231.25%30.00%29.54%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Akhmat Grozny (Local): 32.93%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 38.61%; Draw: 28.46%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.30%EV +2.09%E +0.673%K +0.993%G +0.021%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.25%EV -6.96%E -2.89%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.45%EV -2.94%E -0.862%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 15:49
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -1.21%E -0.402%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -13.14%E -5.84%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 15:48
Marathon Bet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%EV -1.87%E -0.626%K -0.942%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.88%EV -3.87%E -1.55%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.64%EV -3.79%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 15:55
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.14%EV -3.84%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.56%EV -3.10%E -1.23%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -2.66%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 15:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -7.79%E -2.78%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.65%EV -8.50%E -3.59%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -9.44%E -3.43%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.16%EV -5.03%E -2.04%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.69%EV -3.51%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.