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Dinamo Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 25.94%3.86fair odd
EV -0.405%
Edge -0.105%
Kelly -0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.18%27.20%25.94%31.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.563.653.8435.09%28.12%27.40%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 47.62%2.10fair odd
EV +4.28%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +3.60%
Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.12%46.24%47.62%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.012.1952.36%49.42%49.63%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.694%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%26.55%26.45%27.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.623.7130.30%28.12%27.66%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 25.94%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 47.62%; Draw: 26.45%. For Zenit St Petersburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.60%EV -26.08%E -9.15%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.12%EV +4.28%E +1.95%K +3.60%G +0.154%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -12.72%E -3.86%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-21 22:14
1xBet🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 25.86%EV -1.18%E -0.310%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59%EV -1.43%E -0.692%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.55%EV -1.88%E -0.507%K -0.694%G +0.000%1.5%2026-03-22 12:00
Pinnacle🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.74%E -0.730%K -0.996%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.64%EV -3.34%E -1.64%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.57%EV -3.73%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 25.18%EV -0.405%E -0.105%K -0.143%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.34%EV -4.77%E -2.38%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -3.47%E -0.950%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.24%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.88%EV -7.62%E -3.93%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.88%EV -5.06%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 11:59
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -7.93%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.05%E -4.74%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.