The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 2–1 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 33.48%2.99fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.998%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.39%33.58%33.48%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.822.9037.04%35.43%35.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 38.20%2.62fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%38.18%38.20%38.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.472.462.5541.67%40.44%40.65%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.669%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.80%28.24%28.32%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.353.4530.77%29.83%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 33.48%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 38.20%; Draw: 28.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -2.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.43%EV -2.89%E -0.998%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.47%EV -3.74%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -2.31%E -0.669%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 15:20
Pinnacle🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.49%EV -3.23%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.59%E -1.02%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.55%EV -4.01%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.39%EV -3.56%E -1.24%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.16%EV -3.74%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.45%EV -4.29%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 15:03
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.47%EV -5.57%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.36%EV -6.03%E -2.45%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -5.14%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 15:05
BetUS🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.47%EV -5.57%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.36%EV -6.03%E -2.45%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -5.14%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 15:05
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.92%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.32%E -3.47%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -7.97%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 15:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.59%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.32%E -3.47%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 05:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.