The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 0–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 60.20%1.66fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.48%60.20%60.22%60.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.581.601.6264.94%63.13%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 16.44%6.08fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.567%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.39%16.44%16.40%17.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.645.705.8819.23%17.73%17.54%17.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.36%4.28fair odd
EV -0.483%
Edge -0.113%
Kelly -0.148%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.36%23.38%23.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.114.124.2625.32%24.35%24.27%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 60.20%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 16.44%; Draw: 23.36%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.26, with an expected value of -0.483%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.84%EV -2.48%E -1.53%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.40%EV -8.43%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.76%EV -0.483%E -0.113%K -0.148%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 16:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.44%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -3.82%E -0.654%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -1.88%E -0.449%K -0.589%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-22 16:34
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.22%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.39%EV -3.33%E -0.567%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.39%EV -3.75%E -0.911%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-22 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -6.09%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.40%EV -6.29%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.72%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 16:34
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.48%EV -7.29%E -4.74%K -13.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -14.51%E -2.79%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.56%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 16:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.