Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 12:15 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 3–1 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

69%

13%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 69.29%1.44fair odd

EV -2.30%

Edge -1.63%

Kelly -5.61%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.40%68.98%69.29%69.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.371.371.4175.19%73.08%72.99%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 12.78%7.82fair odd

EV +0.967%

Edge +0.122%

Kelly +0.140%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 7.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.22%12.92%12.78%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.607.347.407.9015.15%13.63%13.51%12.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.93%5.58fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -0.555%

Kelly -0.681%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.84%18.10%17.93%18.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.905.195.255.4120.41%19.26%19.07%18.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 69.29%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 12.78%; Draw: 17.93%. For Rodina Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.967%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.94%EV -4.38%E -3.17%K -11.52%G +0.000%	7.90I 12.66%NM 12.22%EV +0.967%E +0.122%K +0.140%G +0.001%	5.41I 18.48%NM 17.84%EV -3.00%E -0.555%K -0.681%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-08-23 12:00
1xBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.02%EV -2.30%E -1.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%	7.73I 12.94%NM 12.59%EV -1.21%E -0.156%K -0.179%G +0.000%	5.29I 18.90%NM 18.40%EV -5.16%E -0.975%K -1.20%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-08-23 12:05
Marathon Bet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.08%EV -3.69%E -2.65%K -9.45%G +0.000%	7.40I 13.51%NM 12.98%EV -5.42%E -0.733%K -0.847%G +0.000%	5.35I 18.69%NM 17.95%EV -4.08%E -0.763%K -0.938%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-23 12:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.50%EV -7.15%E -5.34%K -21.03%G +0.000%	7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -5.42%E -0.733%K -0.847%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.91%EV -6.77%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-23 12:10
Bovada🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.84%E -5.90%K -23.77%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.54%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.36%E -2.07%K -2.59%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-08-23 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.40%EV -5.76%E -4.24%K -16.01%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 13.89%EV -15.65%E -2.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -12.15%E -2.48%K -3.11%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-23 11:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.