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Dinamo Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 66.60%1.50fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -6.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.01%66.60%67.07%68.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.421.441.4675.19%70.52%69.44%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 13.90%7.19fair odd
EV +0.779%
Edge +0.108%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.66%13.90%13.41%15.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.236.937.207.2516.05%14.44%13.89%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.50%5.13fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.220%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.35%19.50%19.51%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.694.955.005.0721.32%20.19%20.00%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 66.60%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 13.90%; Draw: 19.50%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.19. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.779%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.70%EV -5.43%E -3.83%K -12.94%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.26%EV +0.779%E +0.108%K +0.125%G +0.001%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV -1.51%E -0.299%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-01 09:45
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.99%EV -11.43%E -8.59%K -34.63%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV +0.779%E +0.108%K +0.125%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.48%E -0.497%K -0.621%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 09:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.07%EV -4.10%E -2.85%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.41%EV +0.084%E +0.012%K +0.014%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%EV -3.46%E -0.699%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 09:54
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.41%EV -2.77%E -1.90%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.47%EV -6.87%E -1.02%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.12%EV -1.12%E -0.220%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.01%EV -4.10%E -2.85%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.23I 16.05%NM 15.03%EV -13.40%E -2.15%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 19.96%EV -8.53%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.