The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:30 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 1–0 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 64.11%1.56fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.33%63.84%64.11%64.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.481.471.5168.49%67.70%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 14.49%6.90fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.289%
Kelly +0.337%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 7.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.71%14.77%14.49%16.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.296.407.0417.86%15.91%15.63%14.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.579%
Kelly -0.742%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.04%21.39%21.40%21.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.404.304.5523.26%22.73%23.26%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 64.11%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 14.49%; Draw: 21.40%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.79%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.14%G +0.000%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.71%EV +2.03%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.50%EV -3.92%E -0.872%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-12 15:21
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.45%EV -4.48%E -3.01%K -9.14%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.44%EV -3.62%E -0.544%K -0.640%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.11%EV -2.63%E -0.579%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.79%EV -6.40%E -4.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -7.24%E -1.13%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -7.98%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:05
BetUS🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.79%EV -6.40%E -4.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -7.24%E -1.13%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -7.98%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 15:05
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.41%EV -3.20%E -2.12%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.16I 16.23%NM 15.54%EV -10.72%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.04%EV -2.63%E -0.579%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-12 15:20
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.76%EV -6.40%E -4.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -16.66%E -2.90%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -7.98%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 15:18
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.33%EV -5.76%E -3.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -18.84%E -3.36%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -7.98%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 15:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.