The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v FK Sochi

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 67.14%1.49fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -5.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.28%67.14%67.42%68.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.361.4574.63%72.36%73.53%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Sochi (Visit)

Prediction 13.78%7.26fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +0.446%
Kelly +0.515%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.07%13.78%13.48%14.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.927.007.5016.13%14.44%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV -0.016%
Edge -0.003%
Kelly -0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.67%19.08%19.10%19.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.934.905.2421.28%20.29%20.41%19.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 67.14%; FK Sochi (Visit): 13.78%; Draw: 19.08%. For FK Sochi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 68.02%EV -2.65%E -1.83%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.15%EV +3.35%E +0.446%K +0.515%G +0.017%5.24I 19.08%NM 18.82%EV -0.016%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-23 20:24
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.72%EV -6.00%E -4.29%K -15.01%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.32%EV -1.89%E -0.265%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.60%E -0.919%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 20:29
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -10.03%E -7.49%K -29.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -3.54%E -0.506%K -0.591%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -6.50%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 20:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.42%EV -8.69%E -6.39%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -8.41%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 20:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.28%EV -8.69%E -6.39%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.54%EV -14.57%E -2.35%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.18%EV -10.32%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.