The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 17:00 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 2–1 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%28.40%28.04%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.483.7031.25%28.85%28.74%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 47.35%2.11fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.14%47.35%47.65%50.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.972.002.0454.64%50.76%50.00%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.25%4.12fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.437%
Kelly -0.581%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.79%24.25%24.31%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.853.953.984.0525.97%25.32%25.13%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 28.40%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 47.35%; Draw: 24.25%. For Dinamo Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%EV +5.06%E +1.37%K +1.88%G +0.095%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.79%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.97%EV -1.77%E -0.437%K -0.581%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-11 16:49
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -0.615%E -0.176%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.05%EV -13.35%E -7.29%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-11 16:47
Pinnacle🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.73%EV -1.18%E -0.340%K -0.477%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.26%EV -5.30%E -2.65%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.01%EV -2.50%E -0.622%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-11 16:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.04%EV -2.03%E -0.590%K -0.830%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.65%EV -3.88%E -1.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.31%EV -3.47%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-11 16:53
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.13%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%EV -3.41%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.