The School of Odds
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Dinamo Moscow v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 13:15 UTC

Final: Dinamo Moscow 3–1 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Moscow (Local)

Prediction 45.06%2.22fair odd
EV +0.486%
Edge +0.218%
Kelly +0.395%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.84%45.05%45.06%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.122.092.2348.08%47.11%47.85%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -0.401%
Edge -0.118%
Kelly -0.166%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.20%29.21%31.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.183.253.4133.90%31.46%30.77%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.73%3.89fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.516%
Kelly -0.699%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%25.75%25.73%26.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.663.653.8128.57%27.32%27.40%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dinamo Moscow (Local): 45.06%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 29.21%; Draw: 25.73%. For Dinamo Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.486%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.04%EV +0.486%E +0.218%K +0.395%G +0.002%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.16%EV -10.04%E -3.26%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.80%EV -4.28%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 13:04
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -3.12%E -1.45%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.66%E -2.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:03
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.87%EV -3.57%E -1.67%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.67%EV -3.77%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 13:04
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.27%EV -5.82%E -2.79%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36%EV -0.401%E -0.118%K -0.166%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.38%EV -1.97%E -0.516%K -0.699%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.81%EV -5.82%E -2.79%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -9.94%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%EV -6.27%E -3.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.08%E -1.67%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:09
BetUS🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%EV -6.27%E -3.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.08%E -1.67%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.