The School of Odds
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CSKA Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 16:00 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 1–3 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 20.82%4.80fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.286%
Kelly +0.360%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.91%20.82%20.16%22.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.664.794.8723.81%21.45%20.88%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 54.51%1.83fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.99%54.51%55.17%55.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.751.7760.24%57.67%57.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.602%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%24.67%24.67%24.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.883.923.9826.32%25.75%25.51%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 20.82%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 54.51%; Draw: 24.67%. For CSKA Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.91%EV +1.40%E +0.286%K +0.360%G +0.005%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.73%EV -5.16%E -2.97%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.36%EV -1.80%E -0.451%K -0.602%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.97%EV +0.979%E +0.202%K +0.254%G +0.002%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.33%EV -4.62%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.70%EV -3.28%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 15:56
Pinnacle🎯4.79I 20.88%NM 20.17%EV -0.270%E -0.056%K -0.071%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.19%EV -4.62%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -3.28%E -0.836%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 15:45
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -4.23%E -0.919%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -9.52%E -5.74%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 15:54
BetOnline.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -12.55%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -3.53%E -1.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.