The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

CSKA Moscow v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 17:45 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 1–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 55.48%1.80fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -5.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.62%55.35%55.48%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.721.7362.50%59.17%58.14%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 19.34%5.17fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.288%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.31%19.43%19.34%19.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.925.005.2521.28%20.34%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.258%
Kelly -0.346%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.43%25.22%25.19%25.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.773.753.9327.40%26.55%26.67%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 55.48%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 19.34%; Draw: 25.19%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.23%EV -6.80%E -4.05%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV +1.51%E +0.288%K +0.355%G +0.005%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.46%EV -1.01%E -0.258%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.74%EV -4.02%E -2.33%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.02%EV -1.97%E -0.388%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.24%EV -3.78%E -0.991%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-12 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.59%EV -4.02%E -2.33%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.23%EV -3.32%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.18%EV -3.78%E -0.991%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 17:41
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -11.24%E -7.02%K -18.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -3.32%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -4.58%E -2.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -9.12%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 17:21
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -4.58%E -2.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -9.12%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.81%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 17:21
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.46%EV -8.46%E -5.13%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -9.12%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -8.07%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.