Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:30 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

63%

16%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 63.32%1.58fair odd

EV -3.76%

Edge -2.47%

Kelly -7.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.09%63.79%63.32%66.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.481.481.5269.44%67.57%67.34%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 15.68%6.38fair odd

EV +19.17%

Edge +2.52%

Kelly +2.90%

Growth +0.557%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.64%15.24%15.68%17.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.406.176.027.6018.52%16.19%16.61%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.00%4.76fair odd

EV -2.33%

Edge -0.501%

Kelly -0.638%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.66%20.97%21.00%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.514.504.6522.73%22.16%22.25%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 63.32%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 15.68%; Draw: 21.00%. For Rodina Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.70%EV -8.83%E -6.13%K -20.06%G +0.000%	7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV +19.17%E +2.52%K +2.90%G +0.557%	4.65I 21.51%NM 20.66%EV -2.33%E -0.501%K -0.638%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-11 13:24
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.53%EV -3.76%E -2.47%K -7.23%G +0.000%	6.26I 15.97%NM 15.43%EV -1.84%E -0.294%K -0.350%G +0.000%	4.59I 21.79%NM 21.04%EV -3.59%E -0.782%K -1.000%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-10-11 13:25
1xBet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.39%E -2.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%	6.14I 16.29%NM 15.64%EV -3.72%E -0.607%K -0.725%G +0.000%	4.63I 21.60%NM 20.75%EV -2.75%E -0.594%K -0.757%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-11 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.85%EV -5.66%E -3.80%K -11.55%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -7.49%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-11 13:25
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -8.83%E -6.13%K -20.06%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -9.84%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-10-11 13:23
Codere (IT)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.09%EV -6.29%E -4.25%K -13.11%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -15.33%E -2.84%K -3.48%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -7.58%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-10-11 13:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.