The School of Odds
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CSKA Moscow v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:15 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 3–2 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 49.05%2.04fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.99%48.93%49.05%49.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.941.9953.48%51.70%51.55%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 24.91%4.01fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.342%
Kelly -0.458%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.56%25.07%24.91%25.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.793.803.9628.17%26.36%26.32%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.04%3.84fair odd
EV -0.277%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.098%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.00%26.04%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.663.653.8328.57%27.31%27.40%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 49.05%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 24.91%; Draw: 26.04%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.83, with an expected value of -0.277%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 49.45%EV -2.39%E -1.20%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.85%EV -1.36%E -0.342%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.70%EV -0.277%E -0.072%K -0.098%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-22 15:09
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.36%EV -3.86%E -1.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.56%EV -1.85%E -0.470%K -0.630%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -3.40%E -0.917%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-22 15:05
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.84%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -5.34%E -1.41%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.96%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.47%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.86%EV -3.85%E -0.996%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV -2.62%E -0.701%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 15:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.59%E -1.76%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 15:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -11.57%E -3.26%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 12:55
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 15:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.