Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 3–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

36%

37%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 36.13%2.77fair odd

EV -0.641%

Edge -0.233%

Kelly -0.366%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.79%36.42%36.13%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.432.632.692.7541.15%37.97%37.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 36.88%2.71fair odd

EV -2.99%

Edge -1.14%

Kelly -1.84%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.28%36.60%36.88%37.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.582.602.602.6338.76%38.49%38.46%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd

EV -0.426%

Edge -0.115%

Kelly -0.158%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.70%26.99%26.98%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.553.583.6929.41%28.18%27.93%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 36.13%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 36.88%; Draw: 26.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.69, with an expected value of -0.426%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.83%EV -0.641%E -0.233%K -0.366%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 37.47%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.84%G +0.000%	3.69I 27.10%NM 26.70%EV -0.426%E -0.115%K -0.158%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.81%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.48%EV -4.84%E -1.88%K -3.06%G +0.000%	3.62I 27.62%NM 26.71%EV -2.31%E -0.639%K -0.884%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 35.79%EV -2.81%E -1.04%K -1.66%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.32%EV -4.84%E -1.88%K -3.06%G +0.000%	3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV -3.39%E -0.948%K -1.32%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 37.75%EV -12.20%E -5.02%K -8.53%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.28%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-17 06:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.