The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CSKA Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 13:15 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 1–1 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 66.07%1.51fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.43%66.07%66.03%66.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4871.43%69.44%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 13.97%7.16fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.518%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.89%13.97%13.89%14.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.256.686.726.9416.00%14.97%14.88%14.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.97%5.01fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.56%19.97%20.08%20.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.764.804.9021.74%21.02%20.83%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 66.07%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 13.97%; Draw: 19.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.90, with an expected value of -2.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.66%EV -2.22%E -1.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.46%EV -6.15%E -0.915%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.87%EV -2.36%E -0.484%K -0.608%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-01 13:05
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.03%EV -3.54%E -2.43%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.94I 14.41%NM 13.89%EV -3.07%E -0.443%K -0.518%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%EV -4.16%E -0.867%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-01 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.55%EV -4.86%E -3.38%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.89%EV -3.63%E -0.527%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56%EV -2.16%E -0.442%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -6.18%E -4.36%K -14.72%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -7.82%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -8.15%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 13:10
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -7.51%E -5.36%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -12.71%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.15%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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