The School of Odds

CSKA Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov

2026-08-01 13:15 UTC — Premier League - Russia

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 60.77%1.65fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.37%60.77%60.77%61.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.511.571.581.6166%64%63%62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 17.00%5.88fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.224%
Kelly +0.270%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.46%17.00%17.00%17.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.425.715.725.9618%18%17%17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.23%4.50fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.393%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.14%22.23%22.23%22.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.284.304.4224%23%23%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 61.18%EV -2.17%E -1.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.53%EV +1.34%E +0.224%K +0.270%G +0.004%4.42I 22.62%NM 22.29%EV -1.74%E -0.393%K -0.508%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-25 19:45
Marathon Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 61.16%EV -3.99%E -2.53%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.52%EV -0.532%E -0.091%K -0.110%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.32%EV -3.74%E -0.863%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-25 19:35
Bovada1.51I 66.23%NM 61.05%EV -8.24%E -5.46%K -16.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -4.78%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.85%E -2.16%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 19:45
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 59.94%EV -3.99%E -2.53%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.67%EV -8.86%E -1.65%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.39%EV -5.96%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.