The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CSKA Moscow v FK Sochi

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 11:00 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 0–1 FK Sochi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 76.74%1.30fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -12.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.60%76.74%76.53%78.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2685.47%82.10%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Sochi (Visit)

Prediction 8.61%11.61fair odd
EV +9.40%
Edge +0.740%
Kelly +0.804%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 12.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.74%8.61%8.65%9.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.2911.0012.7010.00%8.86%9.09%7.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.65%6.83fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.231%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.88%14.65%14.82%15.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.486.306.9216.67%15.44%15.87%14.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 76.74%; FK Sochi (Visit): 8.61%; Draw: 14.65%. For FK Sochi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 78.05%EV -3.31%E -2.63%K -12.73%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.74%EV +9.40%E +0.740%K +0.804%G +0.076%6.92I 14.45%NM 14.21%EV +1.37%E +0.197%K +0.231%G +0.003%1.7%2026-04-12 05:30
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.07%EV -5.61%E -4.56%K -24.40%G +0.000%11.93I 8.38%NM 8.05%EV +2.77%E +0.232%K +0.253%G +0.007%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.88%EV +1.37%E +0.197%K +0.231%G +0.003%4.1%2026-04-12 10:00
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -10.22%E -8.73%K -60.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -5.24%E -0.477%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -8.45%E -1.35%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 20:33
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.53%EV -6.38%E -5.23%K -29.00%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.65%EV -6.96%E -0.645%K -0.711%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.82%EV -7.72%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 10:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -7.15%E -5.91%K -34.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -13.86%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -12.11%E -2.02%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.